How Will United Replace Their 757s & 767s?

Back in 2018 and early 2019, I wrote a trio of articles detailing the future fleet plans of United, Delta, and American. Over the two years, a lot has changed in the aviation industry (along with the whole world), and fleets of all airlines throughout the world are undergoing massive transformations, often leading to premature retirements due to COVID-19. As a consequence, United’s plans for its fleet have changed drastically since them, through the retirement of a few aircraft types (with speculation of retiring even more models), along with ordering other types to replace older jets.

Perhaps the biggest question in the future of United’s fleet is in the Middle of the Market, the market in between wide-body and narrow-body jets. While their 757-200s and 757-300s have clear replacements and will generally be phased out in the upcoming years, there is no concrete plan in place regarding the future of their slightly larger 767s, with their future at this time being up in the air and with no clear replacements in sight for them. In this article, I’ll take a look at what the 757 and 767 have been up to in the United fleet both prior and during the pandemic, along with replacements for each respective aircraft.

Background

United has long been among the largest operators of the Boeing 757 and 767, two aircraft that have served United’s domestic and international operations for decades. In fact, United was the launch customer of the 767 in 1982, when they launched the first iteration of the aircraft: the 767-200. Since then, they have operated the 767-200ER (which they took over from Continental), the 767-300ER, and the 767-400ER, the latter two of which are still in their fleet.

United has historically operated a fleet that included over 100 Boeing 757s, though now they are down to about 60, of the -200 and -300 variants. The 757 and 767 are known as Middle of the Market (or MoM) aircraft, or planes which are in between narrow-body and wide-body aircraft and generally operate long and thin routes (such as transatlantic routes with lower capacity). For that reason, the 767 and 757 are included together in this section (which is supplemented by the fact that they are technically very similar and share training and maintenance; internally, they even are often referred to with the same name–the 756–when talking about crew bases).

Current Fleet Role of the 757-200

To start off, I’ll first identify the roles of both aircraft and their two respective sub-categories. United operates a fleet of 40 Boeing 757-200s, all of which were taken over from Continental in their merger. Up until recently, United additionally operated a fleet of Boeing 757-200s which had a premium dense configuration (28 business seats instead of 16) and were operated on high yield business routes from Newark (and previously out of JFK with United p.s.) to SFO and LAX, along with from Boston to SFO.

United recently retired their last twelve of them, as they were going to retire them in the relative short-term, with COVID-19 being the final straw for them. These were actually the last of their pmUA (pre-merger United) 757s, most of which were retired between 2011 and 2016 and for the most part were equipped with a standard domestic configuration. I also believe these aircraft used Pratt&Whitney engines, which were unreliable and didn’t allow for the range that pre-merger Continental 757-200s (which had Rolls Royce engines) did, so that likely was an influence in their retirement.

United’s current 757-200s are equipped with 16 lie flat Polaris seats (though not the fancy new seats, the older Diamond ones) and with either 108 or 118 economy seats, and, pre-COVID, were generally used on shorter transatlantic routes (such as Washington to Dublin or Newark to Edinburgh) which required less capacity, along with a few routes from Denver to Hawaii, some premium transcontinental routes, a couple South America flights, and were sometimes used on domestic flights which required a bit more capacity. However, they have for the most part been grounded during the pandemic, though some of them have been operating on hub-to-hub services, such as Newark to Denver or San Francisco.

Right before the pandemic, United actually started retrofitting these 757-200s with new economy class seats and refreshed the business class finishings (but kept the same seats). Their rationale for doing so was that, even though this sub-fleet of 757s had an average age of about 24 years, the market for these long and thin routes was so great that it would be worth it to keep the 757-200 in its fleet for a few more years to operate these specific transatlantic routes–despite the fact that competitors such as BA and American have entirely retired their 757s.

Current Fleet Role of United’s 757-300s

United also operates the 757-300 (sometimes colloquially called the flying pencil), all 21 of which were taken over from Continental. While they share a name with the -200, in United’s fleet, they really are incomparable as they have two completely different roles. While the -200 operates long and thin routes, the -300 (which by the way is also significantly longer than the -200 and has a significantly smaller range) generally operates the opposite type of routes, short and generally high capacity routes, such as San Francisco and Los Angeles to Hawaii or Chicago to Orlando, or on hub-to-hub services. While many of their 757-300s have been grounded during the pandemic, they have generally kept the same role and have been operating on hub-to-hub services, such as from Chicago to San Francisco. Their 757-300s have 234 seats, 20 more than United’s high density 767-300s and 67 more than United’s high J (business) 767-300s. The 757-300s have similar interiors to United’s A320s, with new recliner seats in first class and a low-frills economy class cabin without in-seat entertainment.

United’s 757-300s generally don’t operate in the same markets as their 757-200s and 767s do, so they likely won’t have the same replacement aircraft. Since they are on average only 18 years old and since the entire 757-300 fleet was just retrofitted with new cabins a few years back, I would count on them staying in their fleet for another few years. Plus, United also has a replacement aircraft on order in the 737 Max 10, the largest of the 737 Max lineup, which is slightly smaller than the 757-300 but will likely be used in some of the same markets.

The Role of United’s 767-300s

Moving onto United’s 767s, United operates a fleet of 38 Boeing 767-300ERs. Unlike the 757, the 767 is a wide-body aircraft, though they have somewhat similar capacities. A couple years back, United actually took delivery of three used 767-300s from Hawaiian which were on average younger than United’s previous 767s. United has been in the process of retrofitting their 767-300s with Polaris, with three configurations in service–one which is equipped with their old Diamond business class seat (with 30 business seats), one with their new Polaris seats (also with 30 seats) though without Premium Plus (aka premium economy), and the last being configured in a high-J configuration, with 46 business class seats and 22 supplemental Premium Plus (premium economy) seats, used on high-yield business routes, such as Newark and Chicago to London and Zurich.

For reference, the first United 767-300 with 30 Polaris in mid-2017 (most of these aircraft were retrofitted from United’s old 767-300s that had Global First and tiny looping screens in Economy), while their first high-J 767-300 was retrofitted in mid-2019 (most of these aircraft had previously had B/E Aerospace Diamond seats in business).

While prior to the pandemic, United used their high-J 767-300s on premium heavy transatlantic routes, they used most of its 767-300s on less premium heavy transatlantic routes to mid-sized cities in Europe that didn’t warrant a 777 or 787; such routes included Newark to Lisbon and Newark to Manchester. However, unlike their high-J 767s, United also used their 767-300s on many of their South American routes, such as Washington to Sao Paulo or Houston to Lima, along with on a couple of domestic routes. Interestingly, United has used their “low-J” 767-300s on their premium transcontinental routes from Newark to Los Angeles and San Francisco, which they historically haven’t done.

United has almost completed retrofitted their 767-300s with their new interiors (with a couple still left with their old Diamond seats), though unfortunately, the pandemic hit, which has numerous implications for their 767s, meaning they might have to retire some of them just after retrofitting them. Firstly, with business travel temporarily and perhaps permanently diminished, there becomes less need for their high density 767-300s, which might result in some of them being prematurely retired. United had bet on increasing business demand prior to the pandemic (shown by retrofitting aircraft across the board with more business class seats), though they just got really unlucky (along with the rest of the world), when COVID hit, which will likely restrain business class growth for years.

However, they seem to still have plans for the 767 and don’t seem to be thinking about taking business class seats out or retiring many of them, as United recently scheduled them for their grand return to JFK on flights to LAX and SFO; I can imagine that they will find uses for this sub-fleet, on flights to London and Switzerland (like they did before the pandemic) and maybe even using them for premium transcontinental flights out of Newark or using them to restart JFK to Heathrow operations. I believe that their high-J 767s are also among their newer aircraft of the type, so they might stick around longer.

I still wouldn’t be surprised if some of United’s “low-J” 767s were to be retired sooner; the oldest of United’s 767-300s are almost 30 years old which is getting on the old side. As stated earlier, a few years back, United decided to extend the life of their 767-300s by retrofitting them with their new Polaris seats (most of the non-high-J 767s have in fact been retrofitted), though some still haven’t been retrofitted. I wouldn’t be too surprised if some of United’s older non-retrofitted (and potentially even some of their retrofitted) 767-300s are retired within the next couple of years as a result of the lessened demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic (especially because again, many of them are verging on 30, which is just about retirement age for most commercial jets), though there haven’t been any concrete indications that United will retire any of their 767-300s prematurely.

The 767-400ER: Not Long For This World?

Lastly, United is only one of two operators (the other is Delta) of the 767-400ER, of which they operate 16 ex-Continental aircraft. The 767-400 was never that popular, as only 37 were ever built. The 767-400 since the merger has been one of United’s transatlantic workhorses, mostly having operated flights to Europe from Newark and Washington (such as Dulles to Amsterdam or Newark to Barcelona), along with recently some flights from Houston to South America (such as to Santiago or Buenos Aires). United put the aircraft into long-term storage at the beginning of the pandemic, with no plans to operate them in the near future.

There have been rumors of its retirement in United’s fleet, and, despite that most of them are significantly younger than their 767-300s (the oldest are about 20 years old), I wouldn’t be surprised if they do end up being retired because United has only a relatively small fleet of them and because there aren’t that many in operation in the wider market, making maintenance more costly.

While I used to regard United’s 767-400s as among the nicest aircraft in United’s fleet before Polaris, that was all the way back in the early 2010s right after the merger when they had (relatively) recently been retrofitted with Diamond seats and new economy class seats in BusinessFirst seats right before the merger. However, none of United’s 767-400s are retrofitted with Polaris, which would be extremely costly to do in a market where they aren’t really needed anymore, adding to the argument that they should be retired. Plus, United could easily fill the void left by its 767-400s in a smaller market with its 767-300s and 787-8s, which are both well suited for medium-range transatlantic and South American flights which the 767-400 has historically operated.

The A321XLR & 737 MAX 10: The Perfect 757-200 Replacement Combination

Going forward, the only aircraft United has on order for “MoM” aircraft is the Airbus A321XLR, which was ordered in late 2019. For reference, the A321XLR is a long-range version of he A321neo, which will enter service in 2023. The purpose of this aircraft is to replace the 757-200 on medium-haul routes, such as from the US to Europe, South America, and Hawaii, along with potentially on some transcontinental routes. United will take delivery of their first A321XLRs in 2024 and plans to subsequently retire the rest of its 40 757-200s starting then, though I wouldn’t be surprised if United in reality actually ends up retiring some of the rest of their 757-200s, leaving them with a fleet of 20-30 or so to bridge on shorter the gap until 2024.

Again, United recently spent a lot of money refreshing some of their 757-200s, so it wouldn’t make much sense to retire them immediately as United doesn’t really have another aircraft that can immediately fill its void. United’s other main market that they operate their 757-200s in is on premium transcontinental flights, though they plan on taking delivery of a sub-fleet of 737 MAX 10s which will have lie-flat seats in business class and will be used on flights such as Newark to San Francisco, etc. While the 737 MAX 10 can’t really operate transatlantic flights without being heavily weight restricted, it can easily operate short-haul and transcontinental routes and has a similar (though slightly smaller) capacity to the 757, making it likely the long-term replacement for United’s 757-300s and 757-200s.

What To Do With The 767-300

This leaves the question of what will United do to replace their Boeing 767-300s. Back in 2018, I wrote an article detailing the project that Boeing back then was evidently working on: the Boeing 797, which would have roughly been about the same size as the 767-300 and would have been intended to replace both the 757 and 767. However, since the Boeing 737 MAX incidents and COVID, Boeing has pushed that project aside, leaving no replacement from Boeing for both the 757 and 767 on medium haul flights (though the 737 MAX 10 is a reasonable replacement for the 757-300 and shorter haul 757-200 and 767-300 flights).

There is no direct replacement for the 767 on the market in capacity and specifications, so airlines have had to either downsize or upgrade previous 767 routes with newer aircraft that are either slightly smaller or larger. By looking at what other airlines have done to replace their 767s, one can easily deduce the several options United has to replace them, likely in the long term. For example, British Airways replaced its 767-300s with Boeing 787-8s on intercontinental routes, a slight upgrade in terms of capacity and a massive upgrade in terms of range (though the aircraft does have similar operating costs), while they replaced the 767 with A321s on short-haul routes.

Meanwhile, American Airlines recently retired both its 757-200s and 767-300s, leaving a fairly large gap in its fleet between the Airbus A321 and the 787-8 (the next largest aircraft after the A321). Their premature retirement was a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic, though with no MoM aircraft left in their fleet, this does represent challenges if they were to restart some of their long and thin routes (such as Philadelphia to Edinburgh). However, American plans on taking delivery of 50 A321XLRs starting in 2023 (like United) which they plan to use to expand services to smaller cities in Europe and South America, though without an aircraft of that size in their fleet, they may just have to wait three more years before they restart some of their long and thin routes.

Meanwhile, they plan on replacing their 767-300s in the long run with Boeing 787-8s (of which they have 19 more on order), like British Airways, which will represent a capacity upgrade. However, I wouldn’t be surprised that with potentially permanent demand reductions, it is conceivable that American may end up only restarting some of its lower demand 767 transatlantic routes when they take delivery of the A321XLR.

My last example is Delta Air Lines, which has been taking delivery of the Airbus A330-900neo as a replacement for its 767s. Delta is the largest operator of the 767, with both the 767-300ER and the 767-400ER in its fleet, though they plan to retire all of their 767-300s by 2025, and have retired a significant portion of them in the pandemic. The A330-900neo represents a capacity upgrade for Delta in comparison to the 767-300, with the A330-900 having 281 seats, instead of the 767-300’s 226 seats and the 767-400’s 238 or 246. While you might think that the smaller A330-800neo might have been a more logical replacement, my inteperitation is that operating costs between the -800 and -900 are very similar, so they would rather take the extra capacity (which is I believe why only two airlines have ordered the aircraft).

In my opinion, taking the American Airlines strategy of replacement for 767s might be the most likely outcome. One of the courses United could take is to order a significant fleet of Boeing 787-8s for delivery in the mid-2020s which they would then use to replace their remaining 767-300s, most of which by then will be in need of retirement (though in a smaller market, they probably wouldn’t order the exact same amount). Taking delivery of more 787-8s would make a lot of sense, especially because United already has a sizable fleet of 787s, including 12 787-8s. This would represent an upgrade for many of such routes, though I would imagine that if United does in fact does order another more 787-8s as a replacement for their 767s, they might down gauge some of their lower yield routes to the A321XLR.

The less likely option, in my opinion, is that they would order the A330neo as a replacement for the 767. While it’s possible that they might get a better deal from them than with Boeing, United has long since had very close ties with Boeing, and the more aircraft a carrier operates, the more operating costs arise (with pilot training, more diversified maintenance, etc.). Meanwhile, they already operate a large fleet of 787s, so it would probably make more economical sense to place a second order of 787-8s to replace their 767s instead.

Conclusion

United Airlines is among the largest operators of the 757 and 767, the two most popular aircraft in the Middle of the Market. While the 757-200, 757-300, and 767-300 are looking like they will stick around in the fleet for the upcoming years, the 767-400 quite possibly will be retired due to the pandemic. With the 737 MAX 10 and A321XLR, United has two aircraft which will eventually replace the 757 in the two primary markets it operates in, though United’s options for replacing the 767–especially the 767-300–seem to be slightly narrower, with an additional 787-8 or A330neo order being possible (if not likely) in the coming years.