How Will Airline Business and First Class Evolve Over The Next Decade?

Airline onboard cabin products are one of the key distinguishing factors between airlines, especially when it comes to premium cabins. In this article, I’ll consider how premium cabins on flights throughout the world have changed, and, using that, will consider how they will continue to change over the next decades. I’ll mostly talk about business class and first class, which are generally considered to be the most premium travel classes. I won’t consider how economy class may change over the upcoming years because there has been significantly less innovation in that front over the past decades and besides introducing newer technology and cramping more, thinner, and sometimes more uncomfortable seats in, economy class really hasn’t changed much. In this article, I also largely won’t consider the implications of premium economy, which would also merit its own separate analysis. I also will only consider airlines’ hard products (a.k.a. the seats) and won’t consider their soft products (aka the food, amenities, bedding, etc).

How Have Business & First Changed Over The Past Decades?

I could give a history of the evolution of business and first class since the very inception of separate travel classes, but that would make up an entirely different article. Instead, I’ll first define what the three premium classes I will consider generally look like nowadays and then will start with what cabins looked like in the 1990s.

Before the 1990s, all premium cabins were simply just recliner seats with varied levels of recline, with first class generally just having slightly better ‘armchair’ seats. However, starting with (I think) British Airways in the mid 1990s, airlines started introducing lie flat seats in first class, which marked the beginning of a revolution in premium travel, allowing travelers the experience of a bed in the sky. In fact, some of British Airways’ first lie flat seats even resemble some of the reverse herringbone business class seats of today!

In the early 2000s, however, British Airways (again) made history by introducing the world’s first fully lie flat business class seat, which was in their infamous yin and yang configuration, alternating between forwards and backwards facing seats. Their original lie flat seats could even be found on their former French subsidiary Open Skies until 2018. Since their original lie flat seat, BA introduced two more generations of their original lie flat seat, though a couple of years ago they introduced their first major update to Club World (their business class) since their original lie flat seat with their new Club World Suite.

However, when British Airways introduced their first lie flat seat, it would still be a long time before lie flat seats would become common across the board. Virgin Atlantic was also among the first airlines to introduce fully flat seats in business class, with their herringbone seats, and the same seats (more or less) actually were still their best business class product until they took delivery of their first A350s.

Throughout the 2000s, many airlines still continued to introduce more advanced versions of recliner seats in business class, though many, such as American Airlines, Northwest Airlines, and Lufthansa, started to introduce angled lie flat seats throughout the mid to late 2000s. These types of seats are flat but at an angle (like the name suggests), making them generally less comfortable than fully flat seats, though some airlines such as Lufthansa argued for a time that fully flat seats were too luxurious for business class, thus blurring their distinction. This, in addition to costs, resulted in some airlines opting for angle flat seats instead of lie flat seats throughout the 2000s even once the first fully flat seats were invented.

Meanwhile, by the early to mid-2000s, fully lie flat seats, many of which had all aisle access, became the standard for long-haul first class, shown by United’s introduction of their first lie flat suites global first in (I believe) 1999 or 2000. Emirates made history in 2003 when they came out with their first iteration of their first class suite on their then flagship A340-500, which was the first airplane seat to have fully closing doors and paved the way in first class in the last nearly two decades. In fact, Emirates still uses roughly the same seat on all of their A380s, although they have introduced a more private suite onboard some of their 777s.

Throughout the next two decades though, airlines started eliminating first class on some or all of their planes for a variety of reasons, one of which was because the difference between business and first class became blurred, as was the fear that some airlines had in making business class “too” good. Throughout the 2010s, most airlines adopted first class suites similar to the ones Emirates debuted, generally in a 1-2-1 configuration with closing doors, though some airlines innovated, such as Etihad and Singapore Airlines, whose suites have a separate bed and chair, or Emirates, whose new 777s have doors that go all the way up to the ceiling.

Throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s, most airlines were just starting to introduce their first lie flat seats in business class in favor of old recliner seats; for example, United introduced their first fully flat business class seats in 2006 or 2007, becoming the first US airline to do so in business class. When it came to setting trends for the 2010s, the perhaps most influential seat was the US Airways A330 Envoy Suite, introduced in 2009. It was the first reverse herringbone seat (which generally are just seats that face away from the aisle in a uniform manner), which would become among the most popular seat types in the 2010s, with benefits such as having ample privacy and all aisle access.

If you look at US Airways’ Envoy Suites and compare it with the most advanced versions of the reverse herringbone seat, such as Air China’s new A350 business class, you’ll notice that, besides new technology and added privacy, there actually aren’t that many differences, which really goes to show that in reality, cutting edge business class seats haven’t changed as much as one might have expected in the last 12 years.

By the mid 2010s, the vast majority of major airlines had introduced fully flat seats in business class on most of their long-haul fleets, with many even introducing seats with all aisle access (which are for the most part in a 1-2-1 configuration and allow passengers to access the aisle without stepping over someone else) by the late 2010s, which are now the industry standard.

By the late 2010s and into the early 2020s (aka the present), airlines started moving beyond just having fully flat seats with all aisle access on their latest planes and started introducing business class seats with closing doors, similar to the best first class seats of the prior decade. Although JetBlue was technically the first airline to do so in 2013 on their Mint A321s, only four seats in their cabin had closing doors. Qatar Airways was the first airline to truly introduce a business class cabin with fully closing doors with their QSuites in 2017, which also had seats that could convert into double beds, another feature that some airlines are installing in their newest business class cabins. Following the QSuite, many airlines followed in introducing seats with closing doors, including Delta, British Airways, ANA, among others.

Lastly, I won’t talk about short-haul business and first class in this article, but I’ve included it as reference. Most airlines throughout the the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Australia have recliner seats in short-haul business class (known in the US as First Class), and that generally hasn’t changed over the past decades. Some airlines however outside of the US do offer leg rests and significantly more recliner than US airlines do in business class. Meanwhile, European airlines generally just offer economy class seats with extra legroom and the middle seat blocked in short-haul business class, thus lagging behind the rest of the world.

Lastly, I put together a rough timeline of the evolution of premium cabins and several innovations over the years:

• Mid 1990s: First Lie Flat First Class Seats Introduced On British Airways
• 2000: First Fully Flat Seat Introduced On British Airways In Business Class
• 2003: First First Class Seat With Closing Doors Introduced On Emirates’ A340-500
• Early Mid 2000s: First Herringbone Seat & Seat With All Aisle Access Introduced On Virgin Atlantic
• 2007-2008: First Fully Flat Business Class Seat In The US Introduced On United
• 2009: First Reverse Herringbone Seat Introduced On US Airways
• 2013: First Business Class Seat With Closing Doors Introduced On JetBlue
• 2017: Qatar Airways’ QSuite Introduced; First Business Class With Doors Across The Entire Cabin & With Double Beds
• Late 2017: Emirates Introduces First First Class Seat With Doors That Span The Entire Cabin Height

How Will International First Class Continue To Evolve?

Now that I’ve looked at the history of premium cabins in (generally) the last two and a half decades, I’ll share my thoughts about how I think premium cabins will change over the next decades. For the past two decades, international first class has generally gone away on most routes. While most airlines in the early 2000s had first class on most of their long-haul aircraft, now virtually none do, and the ones that do mostly only have them on a few flagship aircraft (of course, Emirates is the major exception). For example, before United’s merger with Continental in 2012, United had their Global First product on 100% of their long-haul aircraft, and it was significantly different from their business class product. They discontinued first class as a separate cabin in 2018 and their last first class seat was removed in 2020, as their new Polaris seats were significantly better than them.

I know that this was just one example, but the story is true for most airlines; most airlines have either eliminated first class or kept it on a few niche routes on only a small portion of their aircraft. However, this does not mean that first class is going to completely go away. Lufthansa, for example, recently announced that they will add first class on a few of their A350s for a few premium routes out of Munich, which goes to show that even with business class as private as it has ever been, there is still a small, yet existing, market for an ultra private cabin on a few routes for the extremely wealthy. However, going forward, it truly will only be a few routes; I’m thinking of London to New York or Dubai as a couple examples. This means that the few airlines that will continue to offer first class cabins going forward will only continue to offer it on a few of their planes, presumably in small cabins of 4 to 8 seats.

Although first class won’t completely go away, very few airlines will, going forward, continue to use it. Within the next five to ten years, I wouldn’t be surprised if the there are only ten or so airlines with a true first class product left, with very few airlines truly showing a long-term commitment to first class. ANA, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Air France, Lufthansa, SWISS, British Airways, Emirates, and Saudia are probably the only airlines that I’d say are almost certain to still offer first class in 5 years from now, though I’m sure there will still be a couple more (you can find a somewhat accurate full list of the airlines currently offering first class here). In other words, while I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I wouldn’t be surprised if airlines such as Air China, Air India, Etihad, Korean Air, or even American Airlines discontinue first class within the next few years.

So, if there are going to still be a few planes with first class, in terms of innovation, how will these cabins look like in the next decade? Well, first class is almost for sure going to continue to get more exclusive, so I think we can count on airlines introducing more privacy onboard, with Emirates’ new 777 first class likely being a template for the first class of the future. I highly doubt that we’ll see many more airlines introducing seats with a separate bed and seat, like Singapore Airlines and Etihad have done, especially due to the A380 being on the way out, their (generally) mixed reviews (in comparison to more standard seats like Emirates has), and the fact that the 777, 787, and A350 simply have a lot less space that can be ‘wasted’ than the A380 does.

Meanwhile, Emirates’ new 777 first class is still ultra-luxurious even without having a separate bed and seat, with walls spanning the entire height of the cabin separating the seat from the aisle. The seats are in a 1-1-1 configuration and are by far the most private in the world, while the seat also has tons of advanced technology, such as virtual windows for the middle seat and multiple screens within the suite.

The only other airline that has suites that can completely close off the seat from the rest of the cabin is Air France, which has curtains that can close off the seat from the aisle, which is a feature I could see another airline such as Lufthansa using in the future. In comparison to Emirates, this has the benefit of allowing the cabin to feel open with the curtains not closed, which is better for groups, in addition to allowing full privacy if traveling alone. Going forward, I find it possible that airlines such as Japan Airlines or Qatar Airways would introduce seats like Emirates’ new first class with doors the entire height of the cabin as their next generation suites.

Final Prediction: Airlines will continue to phase out first class across most of their fleets, leaving only small cabins on a few aircraft for only ultra premium routes. Technology and privacy will be key across cabins, with more seats with full privacy (either with curtains or full height doors) being introduced on the remaining airlines that have first class. Suites with separate beds and seats like on Singapore and Etihad will not become widespread.

How Will International Business Class Continue To Evolve?

I will split up my predictions for how business class will change over the next decade into four sections: privacy & doors, double beds, flatbed seats on narrow-body aircraft, and technology:

Privacy & Doors

Currently, the standard for long-haul international business class are fully flat seats with all aisle access and generally is and will stay airlines’ highest cabin class, as most airlines have eliminated long-haul first class. As mentioned previously, airlines have started introducing first class style closing doors in business class, providing significant privacy. In fact, the evolution of business class has actually followed a similar path as the evolution of first class in the last two decades. In the 1990s, first class on most airlines consisted of deeply reclining seats that were essentially fully flat seats in (generally) a 2-2-2 configuration, with the best example being Lufthansa’s old first class product. These seats are similar, not in terms of looks or technology, but in terms of seat type (fully flat seats without all aisle access), to the fully flat seats in a 2-2-2 configuration of the last decade (I’m talking about the B/E Aerospace Diamond or the Zodiac Aura).

The next major step in first class was when airlines introduced open suites in the 2000s which had all aisle access and were fully flat, such as with British Airways’ or Singapore Airlines’ old 747 first class. These seats were quite similar to the reverse herringbone seats of the 2010s, as aforementioned. The next major step in the evolution of first class was the introduction of closing doors, which became widespread by the early 2010s, which now is currently being introduced on leading business class products. So the evolution of business class has clearly taken the evolution of first class as an inspiration, with the latest business class products being around a decade behind first class.

So where does that leave us? It would be logical to think that the business class of the future may take some elements of the current first class products. However, that may not entirely be true. The latest first class products have emphasized greater privacy (Emirates’ new 777s) and generally don’t really care about taking up a lot of space, because the people who pay for first class will pay so much that airlines can make taking up a lot of room worth it economically. However, with business class, though it is true that airlines have, as a whole, spread business class out more, airlines still have the philosophy of trying to squeeze in the most seats possible (such as with United’s new(ish) Polaris product, which has the same density as their older Diamond and IPTE seats), while balancing that with privacy and comfort. So while airlines are generally giving some business class seats more space and are using it more efficiently, I find it unlikely that airlines will ultimately completely disregard space restrictions in business class and come up with suites like the current best first class products for business class.

Nevertheless, an interesting hypothesis that would merit it’s own article would be if business class eventually completes the circle and becomes like the current first class today, rare yet highly luxurious, with premium economy becoming more and more like the business class today in twenty years or so. After all, the premium economy of today is very much like the business class of 20-30 years ago, and while airlines claim that their products continuously get better, in reality, their premium cabins just over the decades get more and more exclusive, prompting an inferior cabin to take its place in the long run. Thus, perhaps the true successor of the business class of two decades ago actually is the premium economy of today, not the business class of today.

Anyways, while seats with all aisle access used to be a novelty, now they are commonplace, and the latest novelty has been and continues to be airlines introducing seats with closing doors. Like with this past decade (the 2010s), where most airlines introduced seats with all aisle access, which were introduced at the end of the decade prior, my guess would be that most airlines will have introduced (not necessarily on all planes though) seats with closing doors in business class by the end of the decade.

So I think that in terms of hard products, the biggest trend over the next decade will be that airlines will continue to install suites with closing doors in business class. Doors, even ones which aren’t full height and are only found on a couple of airlines in first class, offer a tremendous amount of privacy for a business class product, which are in particularly valued by those traveling alone. Currently, JetBlue, Qatar Airways, Delta, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, ANA, British Airways, and Aeroflot (don’t cite me! I may be missing a couple) are the only airlines that have suites with doors in business class, though that list will likely expand.

However, this does not necessarily mean that new seats will have to be introduced. Most of the major seat manufacturers now offer seats with closing doors, even if they have not been installed yet on an y airlines, though most of them are just updated versions of previous seat models. For example, Thompson now offers doors for its Vantage XL seat line (which was first introduced a bit less than a decade ago and is a fairly standard staggered seat), which has been installed by multiple airlines (such as Delta, China Eastern). The Collins Diamond, which has also been around for a decade, is now offered with closing doors, and while not airlines install doors with the seat, some do, and eventually most likely will. Similarly, the Safran Versa, formerly known as the Zodiac Sirrus, which was the first Reverse Herringbone seat introduced in 2009 with US Airways and soon after with Cathay Pacific, is now offered with closing doors.

This demonstrates that while the basic “bones” of the top business class seats haven’t changed and will likely not change for the next decade, the current major trend is in increasing privacy for the passenger. And this is not only a trend demonstrated by the introduction of doors in business class, but also can also be traced throughout the last decade. For example, newer (even seats without doors) business class seats generally have significantly greater privacy that older versions of that same or similar seat. For example, the new Stelia Solstys III, found on Singapore Airlines’ medium-haul A350s and 787-10s, is significantly more private than previous versions of the Solstys, such as on Alitalia’s or Etihad’s A330s and 777s, shown by large privacy partitions separating the seat from the aisle.

Thus, while the basic elements of business class seats haven’t changed significantly over the past decade and likely won’t drastically change imminently, the primary emphasis of airlines in business class will continue to be on improving levels of privacy, likely principally over the next decade through the installation of doors.

Double Beds

While privacy will likely stay the primary focus over the next decade in business class, there will likely also be a few more trends. For example, I think it’s likely that more seats with double beds will be installed over the next decade in business class on long-haul flights. While very few airlines have double beds available now (with Singapore Airlines and Qatar Airways being the only two current airlines to offer it), more will likely install them over the next decade; Hawaiian Airlines has announced that they will do so on their 787-9s.

While they are hardly useful for passengers traveling alone and generally aren’t “full” double beds because of space restrictions, they can be a unique feature for couples traveling together that can help airlines differentiate their product. Additionally, some seat manufacturers have signaled that they could install double beds in business class in the future; for example, Safran has released a version of their Optima set (aka United Polaris) that has the two seats in the very center section being able to form a double bed, which I would not be surprised if an airline installs in the future.

Flatbed Seats On Narrow-Body Aircraft

Additionally, there will likely be more innovation when it comes to short to medium haul business class products, especially on narrow-body aircraft. Fully flat bed seats are somewhat of a novelty on narrow-body aircraft, with only a handful (though many more than just 5 years ago) airlines offering them. And it makes sense, as narrow-body aircraft are mostly used on short-haul flights, where fully flat beds are not necessarily needed. However, with the A321LR and A321XLR arriving shortly which can easily fly transatlantically, along with improving industry standards on medium haul flights that 737s and A320s fly on, there has become and increasing trend in airlines installing flatbed seats on narrow-body aircraft.

Currently, flatbed seats on narrow-body aircraft are still relatively rare, when you consider the number of narrow-body aircraft in service. Major airlines that have fully flat seats on narrow-body aircraft include United, Delta, (both on the 757), TAP, British Airways, Vistara, Philippine Airlines, Saudia, Aer Lingus, American Airlines, Qatar Airways, Starlux, JetBlue, Air Astana (all on the A321), FlyDubai, SilkAir, and Copa Airlines (on the 737 MAX). I believe this list is mostly complete, and it isn’t unsubstantial and is highly diverse, though again, it’s quite small when you consider the amount of airlines that operate narrow-body aircraft.

As I mentioned briefly before, a primary market for narrow-body flatbed seats will be transatlantically on the A321XLR, which will be delivered to a plethora of airlines such as United and American, which will fly them on long and thin routes, primarily transatlantically but also tentatively to Hawaii or South America. The A321LR is already in service (which has a slightly shorter range than the XLR), which gave a need for flatbed seats for full service airlines such as JetBlue or TAP which fly them on medium-haul routes. Meanwhile, airlines such as FlyDubai and Copa, although they don’t use their aircraft on medium or long-haul routes and generally fly them only on routes less than 6 hours, decided to opt for flatbed seats simply to offer a competitive advantage over other airlines and improve their onboard product, especially because they both don’t have wide-body jets.

In terms of seats on narrow-body flatbed seats, the most popular seat is the Collins Diamond seat which has been around for nearly 15 years and is found on United’s and Delta’s 757-200s, along with on a few other airlines such as Qatar Airways or Philippine Airlines. This seat is in a 2-2 configuration and, although it is not up to industry standards on long-haul flights, it is more than adequate on narrow-body flights. The second most popular seat would be the Thompson Vantage, which is in an alternating 2-2 and 1-1 configuration on narrow-bodies, and is found on airlines such as JetBlue or Air Astana.

However, with industry standards ever improving and narrow-bodies being used on longer haul flights, some airlines have decided to innovate and introduce seats with all aisle access or even doors on narrow-body aircraft. And by airlines I mean airline, and by airline I mean JetBlue, which recently took delivery of its first A321LR which it plans to use to fly to London. While herringbone seats–seats that face into the aisle in a uniform configuration–have become outdated on wide-bodies, they seem to be taking a new life on narrow-body jets, in the form of the Thompson Vantage Solo, which JetBlue installed with closing doors on their A321XLR. This seat will likely become one of the most popular seats on narrow-body jets with flatbed seats in the next decade, as it offers much more privacy than the Diamond or (regular) Vantage offer, along with offering all aisle access. While these seats are amazing for solo travelers, a possible complaint is that you can’t sit next to a companion, making them potentially less ideal for those traveling with a companion. It also seems likely that United will install this seat on their A321XLRs and on their future premium transcontinental 737 MAX 10s.

Another flatbed possible seat that will likely be found on narrow-body aircraft is the STELIA Aerospace OPERA seat, which seems to be the best of the seats intended for narrow-body aircraft, as it is in the more private reverse herringbone configuration and has fully closing doors, which would make it among the best business class seats on the market (not just for narrow-body aircraft).

My last speculation when it comes to narrow-body aircraft is on whether flatbed seats will become widespread on narrow-body aircraft in business on domestic flights within the US. There has (unfortunately) been very little innovation when it comes to business class on domestic flights within the US within the past decades, with standard bland recliner seats staying the industry standard. Yes, United, American, Delta, and JetBlue offer flatbed seats on some transcontinental flights, but there hasn’t been a movement to install flatbed seats across a large portion of airlines’ domestic narrow-body fleets so far, with airlines instead opting to install improved (sometimes “improved,” yes I am looking at you American) recliner seats in business “First Class” (sorry I forgot momentarily that they all brand domestic business class as first class, thus furthering the irony of the ever not improving nature of it).

My terrible attempt at humor 4,500 words in (thank you so much for sticking with me if you got here!) aside, it really would be great if an airline (of those three it would probably not be American, based on recent trends) would install flatbed seats across their entire, or at least their entire transcontinental, domestic narrow-body fleet, which really would give that airline a competitive advantage. However, this scenario is highly unlikely, as airlines value densification and would likely not be able to charge significantly higher prices, so I would not bet that any airline would take such a drastic action within the next decade. If anything, you can bet on more airlines within Asia installing fully flat seats on narrow-body aircraft that aren’t the A321XLR within the next decade, as there (only maybe) seems to be more of an emphasis on distinguishing their products there, as opposed to in the US and Europe (I mean, they don’t even have recliners there!).

Technology

My final prediction for how business class will change over the next decade is more broad, in that likely airlines will continue to emphasize the integration of technology in all of their cabins. Only two decades ago, individual in-flight entertainment was a novelty and was in its infancy, whereas today, especially on long-haul flights, it is industry standard. We have seen airlines improving their in-flight entertainment over the past decade, with many (Emirates stands out) having multiple screens per seat in premium cabins. It’s quite likely that we will see significantly more advanced entertainment systems this decade, especially in premium cabins, perhaps with more personalized features, being able to access the airline’s reservations systems, or maybe even being able to connect your own device to the entertainment system so you can watch what you downloaded on Netflix or a spreadsheet up on the screen, which is something I’m personally surprised we haven’t seen. I think we can firmly also expect more features such as being able to order meals from your seat with the IFE, along with generally larger, more crisp, and even 4K screens.

Given that our current in-flight entertainment systems are significantly more advanced than it was a decade ago, I find it quite likely that they will continue to advance over the next decade, especially for premium cabins. I don’t have really any more thoughts on what in particular might change in terms of technology onboard aircraft, though I do find it quite likely that technology will be a major focus when further distinguishing, especially business class, products from each other onboard.

Final Prediction: Privacy will continue to be a key factor in, especially long-haul, business class products; many airlines will likely continue to install seats with fully closing doors in medium and long-haul business class. On long-haul flights, more airlines will likely start offering double beds. Fully flat seats will become increasingly widespread across narrow-body flights on medium-haul, along with some short-haul, routes. Technology will continue to become more engrained in premium cabins.

Conclusion

Business and First Class across the entire aviation industry have changed drastically over the past decades and will continue to change. It really is quite amazing to see how industry standards have changed over the past decades, as what used to be above average for first class is now below average for business class. Going forward, we can expect both cabin classes to continue to change. First class likely will continue to grow more sparse, staying in only a few heavily premium markets, while seats will continue to get even more private, though it’s unlikely we will see any more seats such as Etihad’s or Singapore’s A380 suites with separate beds and seats. In business class, privacy will continue to stay the key driving factor, with more airlines continuing to install doors. Fully flat seats on narrow-body jets and cabins with double beds will continue to be installed, while the integration of technology with aircraft cabins will likely continue to stay key.